Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
