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New Yorkers will learn the identity of their new city leader this Tuesday, in a race that will decide who runs and defends the nation's largest city at a moment when Donald Trump has threatened to deploy military troops to the urban center.

In this context, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democrats against each other. The contest has turned into an increasingly bitter showdown, laced with accusations of racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading contenders that could have major implications for how the party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the young democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has attracted international attention. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who defeated his opponent in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has campaigned on a agenda of economic justice and promised to halt rent increases for about 2 million city residents, has outpaced his rival by double-digits across all surveys conducted in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

However, the former governor, who stepped down as governor in recent years amid allegations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has trashed his opponent's objectives as unachievable, and in recent days chuckled along as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was strongly criticized as bigoted after posting an AI-generated ad that included a series of racial caricatures and showed his opponent releasing a convicts.

This represents a particularly ugly conclusion to an election that could be key to the path that the Democratic party, floundering in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

Should Mamdani secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his bid will be forced to reckon with a message that has appealed to Americans' anger at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about affordability, given the newcomer has created an excitement within the Democratic ranks perhaps not seen since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House in 2016.

Conversely, if Cuomo, who had been expected to sail to victory in the June primary, achieve a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could reinforce national Democrats' current model of considered, lackluster opposition – a tactic that has angered grassroots members. A NYC rejection of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could convince party leaders that the best plan is to stick to the center – even as polls show the current iteration of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of New York appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Polls show that his backers are much more excited about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. Mamdani's snappy videos on social media, his hopeful outlook for New York and his willingness to actually get out and connect with voters in the metropolis has attracted an force of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them youth or new participants.

Personal Attacks

However, Cuomo, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks against him, the ex-leader has turned to negative campaigning in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might resonate, the independent has concentrated on targeting the candidate personally. He has labelled his rival, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and popped up on Fox Business for an interview with a rightwing host, where Cuomo asserted New York “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It hit bottom last week, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy echoes much of what the former president, who has deployed the national guard to the capital and warned to do the same to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that is expected. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to Trump in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to elect the independent into office, as other influential figures have pressured the Republican candidate to drop out from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should never have come to this. When the assemblyman, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, started his campaign for mayor in last year, few had known him, and in truth, barely anyone even noticed.

The former governor, by comparison, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held every edge. The classic establishment figure, he had married a political dynasty member and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became New York governor in 2011, 17 years after his father, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the identical role.

The progressive, who was elected to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the city's direction than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Still, the candidate has faced difficulties in recent days, after footage surfaced appearing to show him suggesting the New York police department and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been laced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the clip, filmed at a DSA convention in 2023. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the nation is committing genocide in Gaza, indicated he was questioning cooperative programs between the city police and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, Mamdani seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his response to his opponent's escalating attacks.

The progressive addressed the independent's 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first ran for state assembly, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could express their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our faith.”

Speaking to the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd